The Macro Sentiment Is Overall Bearish, and the Most-Traded BC Copper Contract Opened Low and Trended Downward [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

SMM, December 31: Today, the most-traded BC copper 2502 futures contract opened lower and trended downward, starting at 65,560 yuan/mt and closing with a bearish candlestick as the 10-day moving average crossed the candlestick body. Overnight, the most-traded BC copper 02 contract opened lower with a gap and fluctuated downward as bulls reduced positions. During the morning trading session, the futures market fluctuated within the range of 65,140-65,380 yuan/mt. In the afternoon trading session, the most-traded BC copper 02 contract dipped to 65,130 yuan/mt as bears increased positions, followed by a slight rebound, ultimately closing at 65,310 yuan/mt, down 370 yuan/mt or 0.56%. The decline was mainly driven by increased short positions, with open interest reaching 6,914 lots, an increase of 538 lots compared to the previous trading day. Trading volume reached 7,975 lots, up by 1,261 lots from the previous trading day.

Macro side, China's official manufacturing PMI for December recorded 50.1, remaining in expansion territory but below the previous value and forecast of 50.3, while the non-manufacturing PMI rebounded. The US dollar index remained at a high level, exerting pressure on the upside of base metals. The overall macro sentiment was bearish, leading to weaker copper prices during the day.

The SHFE copper 2502 contract closed at 73,770 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2502 contract price of 65,310 yuan/mt, its tax-inclusive price is approximately 73,800 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2502 contract and the BC copper 2502 contract was -30 yuan/mt, with the spread remaining inverted and narrowing compared to the previous trading day.